Let's Do The Timewarp
What 2023's biggest music biz stories mean for 2024.
The philosopher-king Matthew McConaughey said that time is a flat circle. But there’s no denying that a New Year can mean a new look at business. At the very least, fresh budgets can start moving the needle in one direction or another.
Meanwhile, the divine oracle Demi Lovato told us to “Learn from the past and share your experiences with others.”
We’re always taking the wisdom of the elders to heart. This is why, as 2023 winds down, we’re meditating on what we’ve witnessed during the past year and pondering what it might mean for 2024.
Here are a few prognostications:
1. GenAI
The introduction of these tools in 2023 has already changed the game for media and marketers, and music isn’t far behind. Just this week, real-life intellectual Yuval Noah Harari expressed concerns for the future of civilization as AI runs amok. The problem is that the Instagram post promoting the article reads like it was written by a bot (or Yoda). See the last sentence of the caption.
When we spoke to BT about AI back in September, the technologist-producer had a far more optimistic take, at least in terms of its impact on music, declaring “The idea of writer's block three years from now is actually unimaginable. It's unimaginable. And I'm serious, like, that is going to end.”
Hopefully, ending writer’s block isn’t a paperclip problem that ends musicians entirely. But assuming we all survive, the introduction of responsive GenAI soundtracks for gaming, as we discussed with Infinite Album CEO Karen Allen a few weeks ago, could at least make those soundtracks more interesting.
2. Streaming Royalties
This year saw the first widespread discussion of updating the streaming royalty model since the system was established over a decade ago. Universal Music Group was the first to make noise, calling for change back in January and launching a pilot program with Deezer in France by October. Warner Music joined the “artist-centric” model a month later, making Sony Music the only major yet to jump in.
They might not have to because while the majors were publicly dancing with Deezer, Spotify seized control of the narrative by announcing its own royalty revisions that will take effect in “early 2024.”
Because of its sheer scale, Spotify’s new model, which includes a contentious 1,000 stream minimum per song, will have the most widespread impact on the industry. How much of an impact remains to be seen, but while 2023 was all talk about streaming royalties, 2024 will see the rubber hit the road.
3. Music RIghts
Music IP’s high-flying run caught some turbulence in 2023, most notably the trouble at previously peacocking Hipgnosis Songs Fund. But one bad bird doesn’t ruin the flock. Big dollar deals are still being made on catalogs, but the one thing that became clear in 2023 is that you need to actually work that catalog if you want it to pay off. Passive income, publishing is not.
Our bets in 2024 favor folks like Mara Kuge, who we spoke with back in April about her boutique Superior Music Publishing, which specializes in the sort of 80s throwback new wave that went supernova in 2022 with the Stranger Things/Kate Bush phenomenon.
BMG closed 2023 with their own doubling down on the sound by increasing its stake in the era-defining “99 Luftbaloons.” But the genre is less relevant than the realization that with megastar catalogs stock in low supply following the five-year feeding frenzy, 2024 could be the time for mid-sized artists to find a nurturing home for their catalogs.
4. Spatial Audio
Spatial audio was introduced to music streaming back in 2021, but the novelty became normalized in 2023 as more and more releases got the Dolby Atmos treatment. Spotify’s deafening silence surrounding the format means that the messaging around spatial’s future is still mixed. But Apple Music ended the year with a report that it would start giving “added weight” to songs submitted in spatial, suggesting that spatial will only continue to rise in 2024.
We addressed all of the issues (and opportunities) surrounding spatial audio with an esteemed panel of Grammy-conferred audio engineers, Steve Genewick, Kevin Moo and Dean Reid, back in August. Everything we discussed remains relevant as we move into the new year. So it’s worth revisiting if you can.
5. Venue Merch Fees
The biggest surprise of 2023 for The Cadence had to be our unexpected interview with the legendary Steve Albini which grew out of a Twitter exchange with DIY mainstay regarding contracts forcing performers to share a percentage of merch sales with venues.
Never one to let a good press release go to waste, Live Nation got in front of the merch debate with its On The Road Again program that removed such fees from more than 75 small- and mid-sized venues. Sadly, that policy is only in place until the end of 2023. That means if you’re going to a show at a participating LN venue in the next seven days, it’s your last chance to pick up a t-shirt without the promoter taking a piece of the pie.