Recession or Right-Sizing
Coachella's 2024 lineup could indicate where fests are headed.
This week saw the release of Coachella’s 22nd lineup, and with it came the usual commentary from festival veterans who haven’t been the target market for the annual event for over a decade. But it was a post by the always observant Jeff Miller that caught our attention when he wrote, “It feels REALLY slim. I wonder if they cut a stage.”
Being the intrepid investigators that we are, The Cadence set out to do the hard work of counting the number of artists appearing on the 2024 poster and comparing it with the 2023 and 2022 headcounts. And sure enough, the total count this year is 146 acts, down from 162 in 2023 and 173 in 2022.
All told, that is a 15.6% reduction in headcount — or just a little less than the total loss of employees at Spotify in 2023. It’s also in the neighborhood of layoffs at another SoCal, KCRW, which announced a 10% decrease in its workforce.
There’s little doubt that things are contracting all over, so why should America’s premier music festival be any different? For more than two decades, Coachella outpaced many macroeconomic obstacles. It grew from a one-day event in 2001 to two days in 2002 despite the events of 9/11. It then expanded to three days in 2008, just as the Great Recession kicked into gear. Demand continued to increase until the festival went ahead and doubled in 2012, expanding from one weekend in April to two. Less dramatic, though also notable, was the festival ground’s expansion that allowed the total two-weekend attendance to grow from 200K to 250k by 2017.
And that’s where Coachella sat — the biggest of the big-time music festivals. Its cancellation in March 2020 was one of the major bellwethers of the rapidly approaching COVID catastrophe. And when Coachella emerged in the spring of 2022, it marked a definitive return to normal. The festival that started as a left-of-center music proposition still held the mainstream in the palm of its hand, booking headliners that topped the charts including Harry Styles, Billie Eilish, and The Weeknd. 2023 headliner Bad Bunny was the #1 Billboard artist of the previous year.
Looking at the 2024 line-up and Coachella also appears to be right-sizing its headliners. Lana Del Rey makes good on her canceled 2020 booking that was billed just beneath headliner Frank Ocean. Tyler, the Creator was last seen third on the poster (after Beyoncé and HAIM) in 2018, while Doja Cat has moved up from second billing behind The Weeknd in 2022 to a top slot this year.
Of the three headliners, only Doja has ever cracked the Billboard Top 10 artists (she was #6 in 2022). Lana did even make the list until last year, when she suddenly appeared at #55. Streaming numbers don’t perfectly equate with live draw, but this year certainly sees Coachella returning to its roots as a festival more for the head and less likely to appeal to pedestrian music fans.
That’s not to say people won’t attend Coachella who aren’t Lana stans. The festival has long sold at least half of its tickets during the summer sale that pre-dates the line-up announcement by a solid six months and then handily sells the rest within a few days of the general onsale — a feat it’s able to pull off by appealing to both music diehards who trust the curation and passive music fans who love the experience of Coachella regardless of whose playing.
Last year saw the first sign that things were slightly stalling when it was reported that Weekend 2 did not sell out. That doesn’t mean Coachella’s apparent downsizing this year is a direct result of that falter. We went to Weekend 2 last year, and it was bustling and a blast.
2024 promises to be even more fun, if for no other reason than No Doubt. It’s impossible to compare the 90s icons who sold more than 25M full-priced CDs with today’s streaming stars — never mind Gwen Stefani’s own 19M units sold in the ’00s.
But that matters less than the fact that when it comes to SoCal standard bearers for the past 30 years, only Red Hot Chili Peppers and Black Eyed Peas can compete. Blink-182 proved that Gen-Z is ready for an alt-rock revival when the trio’s surprise reunion drew huge crowds at Coachella last year. They walked so that No Doubt could run, which is fair since No Doubt’s ska-punk style in the 90s paved the way for Blink-182’s pop-punk domination in the early ’00s.
Coachella promoters Goldenvoice couldn’t cash in on the success of these local heroes the first time around as thier shows were still operating in the relative underground. From it’s earliest days, Coachella was known for bringing legendary acts like The Stooges, Jane’s Addiction and Portishead back to the stage after extended breaks. No Doubt in 2023 is different than the Pixies in 2004, but the concept of an only-at-Coachella reunion still resonates. Combine that with the undeniable Orange County of it all and No Doubt shining in the desert sun seems pre-ordained to be awesome. We’ll be there.
And we have no idea if a few fewer performers on the poster will make any sort of meaningful difference. Will the Sonoroa Stage go bye-bye? Or will the breaks between acts be extended by a few minutes each? Could this actually reduce the inevitable overlapping of artists between stages? A 15% reduction in FOMO is a right-sizing we would appreciate.
Or maybe we’re overthinking the whole thing. Bonnaroo also announced this week and are offering roughly the same 200 acts as last year. Govornor’s Ball has also dropped its 2024 lineup with the same headcount as last year. Cruel World, Goldenvoices beloved goth-loving event, actually increased it’s total bookings by 30% (from 24 to 31 acts). That could mean a new stage added to make it work.
But when it comes to reading tea leaves, Coachella has proven time and time again to be a leading indicator of what’s to come in American music culture. It might be time for a live industry that has been breaking records all over since the end of the pandemic to tighten its belt — at least one notch.
TAKEAWAYS
Salient statements from this week’s music news.
1. Pouring One Out for Pitchfork
Long-form articles in Rolling Stone, The Atlantic, The Guardian and dozens more prove that one thing old-school music journos are still good at is writing obituaries.
Takeaway: Pitchfork’s world got a little bigger, the genres it covered continued to expand, and hard-news scoops kept piling up through last year, when the site received its first-ever National Magazine Award nomination for general excellence. Now, it has been cut down to size.
2. MLC Issues Notices of Intent to Audit Spotify and Other DSPs
The government-mandated agency formed in 2021 is preparing to role out one of it’s essential functions.
Takeaway: Should an audit of a DSP reveal an underpayment of any amount, The MLC says it will distribute the full amount of any recovery to the impacted rightsholders, without deducting any audit costs or fees.
3. If Music Marketing is a Gateway to Culture, Brands Must Navigate Carefully
Music partnerships remain high risk/high reward for most brands looking to make an impact.
Takeaway: Brands must be good stewards of musical artists and culture as a whole. Meaning, using a song or artist solely as a means to increase cultural cache and the bottom line risks brand alignment, inauthenticity and even public backlash, per execs.
